It's the Oscars: Breaking down the biggest winners and losers from the 2018 Academy Awards nominations

It's the Oscars: Breaking down the biggest winners and losers from the 2018 Academy Awards nominations

It's Oscar nominations day and if you're in Hollywood, you're probably either rejoicing or getting ready to walk straight into the ocean.

We're going to quickly cherrypick the meatiest categories and try to figure out the landscape before the eventual thrill and disappointment of Oscar night on March 4. A complete list of the 2018 Oscar nominations can be found here.

Away we go.

Best Picture

“Call Me by Your Name”
“Darkest Hour”
“Dunkirk”
“Get Out”
“Lady Bird”
“Phantom Thread”
“The Post”
“The Shape of Water”
“Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”

Another year without 10 Best Picture nominees. Really? With films like I, TonyaThe Florida Project and The Disaster Artist getting chatter you'd think one of them would be an easy layup nomination. In the "hopeful but unrealistic" tier maybe we could have seen a War for the Planet of the Apes, Logan or Wonder Woman get a nod. Not to be, apparently.

Lead Actor

Timothée Chalamet, “Call Me by Your Name”
Daniel Day-Lewis, “Phantom Thread”
Daniel Kaluuya, “Get Out”
Gary Oldman, “Darkest Hour”
Denzel Washington, “Roman J. Israel, Esq.”

Welp, you don't often see someone score a Golden Globe for a major category and then not get nominated for the Oscar. Sorry, James Franco. Little bit of a raised eyebrow to see Washington pick up a legacy nom for a film no one saw or liked. Day-Lewis' inclusion might be another lazy pick for me. Sure, it's the GOAT DDL, but his turn in Phantom Thread was workmanlike. Nothing special. 

It was nice of the Academy to give nods to rising stars Chalamet and Kaluuya. They'll have great seats to watch Oldman win his first Oscar by a landslide. I still maintain it's a tragedy that Robert Pattinson didn't receive more recognition for Good Time. *That* was the male performance of the year.

Lead Actress

Sally Hawkins, “The Shape of Water”
Frances McDormand, “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”
Margot Robbie, “I, Tonya”
Saoirse Ronan, “Lady Bird”
Meryl Streep, “The Post”

No real surprises here. You've always got THE STREEP FACTOR to contend with but I've got her at the back of the field. Where Best Actor might be a one-man show, this is actually the tightest race. It's Robbie for me, but you can't go wrong with McDormand or Hawkins. People seem upset that Jessica Chastain was left out, but who would you swap her out with? The Academy got this one right. 

Supporting Actor

Willem Dafoe, “The Florida Project”
Woody Harrelson, “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”
Richard Jenkins, “The Shape of Water”
Christopher Plummer, “All the Money in the World”
Sam Rockwell, “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”

Like Lead Actor, this might a one to two-man race between Dafoe and Rockwell. Dafoe carries The Florida Project's sole nomination, which could be good or bad. The Academy could show some love to the film with a Dafoe win or just snub it altogether as they did in the other categories. I think you've got to feel pretty safe with Rockwell after winning both the SAG award and Golden Globe. 

As for snubs, I'll see your Armie Hammer and raise you a Michael Stuhlbarg. The man had meaty roles in three, THREE Best Picture nominated films (Call Me by You Name, The Shape of Water and The Post). Whoa. I also hope Sir Patrick Stewart is somewhere in another dimension getting some love for his Professor X sendoff in Logan

Supporting Actress

Mary J. Blige, “Mudbound”
Allison Janney, “I, Tonya”
Lesley Manville, “Phantom Thread”
Laurie Metcalf, “Lady Bird”
Octavia Spencer, “The Shape of Water”

A bit of a surprise to see Phantom Thread's Lesley Manville sneak in here but I'm not mad at it. She more than held her own in scenes with Daniel Day-Lewis. I love me some Octavia Spencer, but I fear this is another two-contender race. In one corner you've got Allison Janney, in the other, Laurie Metcalf. Both played moms, both deserve the gold. One starred in Lady Bird, but only one got WORK out of a bird. Tip goes to Janney.

I never really considered Tiffany Haddish an option, but there might be some furrowed brows over Holly Hunter. Possibly a casualty of an indie from Amazon Studios that released too early in the year. 

Director

“Dunkirk,” Christopher Nolan
“Get Out,” Jordan Peele
“Lady Bird,” Greta Gerwig
“Phantom Thread,” Paul Thomas Anderson
“The Shape of Water,” Guillermo del Toro

A strong field, but this one seems to be Del Toro's to lose. Gerwig gets her nomination after the much publicized snub at the Golden Globes. It's nice to see Peele thrown a bone, another first-time director. To me, Nolan and Anderson are just here to take up space. Franco might have been a consideration before ... the incident. Wonder Woman's Patty Patty Jenkins or Logan's James Mangold would have been interesting picks. 

The biggest snub here has to be Three Billboards' Martin McDonagh. Considering how well the entire film and its cast has done this awards season it's tough to imagine how McDonagh wouldn't manage to squeeze in. As with Lady Bird at the Golden Globes, it might be an awkward night if we see Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri take Best Picture.

(image via Warner Bros.)


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